Friday, 28 October 2016

Dhanteras Buying Fails to Lift Gold

Dhanteras Buying Fails to Lift Gold; Falls Rs 110
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Gold prices drifted lower by Rs 110 to Rs 30,590 per 10 gram at the bullion market here despite token buying by jewellers and retailers on the occasion of 'Dhanteras' today. A weak trend in the precious metals overseas mainly led to the fall in gold prices, bullion traders said. Silver however managed to close steady at Rs 42,700 per kg on scattered demand from coin makers ahead of the Diwali festival.
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Dhanteras is considered to be an auspicious day for buying gold, silver and other valuables and is largely celebrated in North and West India. Despite buying support from jewellers for the auspicious festival of Dhanteras, gold failed to glitter largely due to a weak trend in global market. Globally, gold fell 0.17 per cent to trade at USD 1,265.90 an ounce in Singapore, while silver shed 0.34 per cent to USD 17.53 an ounce. Back home, gold 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity fell by Rs 110 each to Rs 30,590 and Rs 30,440 per 10 gram, respectively.

Sovereign, however, continued to be enquired at Rs 24,500 per piece of 8 grams.

In futures trading, gold for delivery in December too was down by Rs 46, or 0.15 per cent at Rs 29,881 per 10 gram. On the other hand, silver ready in restricted activity held steady at Rs 42,700 per kg, while weekly-based delivery was down Rs 15 at Rs 42,170 per kg.

Thursday, 27 October 2016

Commodity Updates -- Gold Inches Higher

Gold Inches Higher, Market Seeks Direction on U.S. Interest Rates
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Gold rose marginally on Thursday, on track to end the week barely changed as the market waited for more signs about the timing of an expected U.S. interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve. Higher interest rates lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and boost the dollar, in which gold is priced.  
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Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,268.96 an ounce by 0920 GMT while U.S. gold futures rose by a similar margin to $1,269.50 per ounce. It has traded in a roughly $16 range over the last week. "Trading is really tight. We are in a wait-and-see mode until the next Fed meeting or U.S. elections. We are probably going to trade like this until something substantial happens," Capital Economics commodities economist Simona Gambarini said.  

Gold is also often seen as an alternative investment during times of political and financial uncertainty such as the U.S. Presidential elections in November. Higher physical demand from India is helping prices stay afloat and preventing a selloff ahead of an expected interest rate rise in December, analysts say.  

Festivals in India, such as Diwali and Dhanteras when gold is traditionally given as gifts, are approaching, which will also keep demand buoyant. "Physical demand from Asia continues to underpin the market at present, with gold continuing to consolidate for the time being between $1,250-75," MKS PAMP Group trader Sam Laughlin said.  

SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 1.49 percent to 942.59 tonnes on Wednesday. The market will look to third-quarter UK GDP data and data from the US later in the day for the latest economic signals.

Wednesday, 26 October 2016

Commodity Updates -- Crude Oil Prices Declining

Crude Oil Prices Declining on API Report and OPEC-Related Concerns
Crude oil prices continue to fall over OPEC drama and traders’ concerns over the expected production deal. Oil prices again declined below $50 a barrel during Tuesday trade, as oil traders were still doubtful about whether OPEC members can work out a deal or not. 
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Iraq’s retreat from either freezing or cutting their production raised several concerns over the deal and production quota for each member.  

Iraq says they also want exemption like Nigeria and Libya and needs more money to fight against the Islamic State militants. Iraq is the second-largest crude oil exporter among OPEC members and their retreat could have big consequences on the production deal, which is likely to be finalized at the next month’s meeting in Vienna.  

According to Chinese customs data, Iraq exported more oil to China than Saudi Arabia in the last month. Iraq’s increasing exports to China, which is Saudi Arabia’s biggest customer, raised several questions for Riyadh about what would happen if Saudi Arabia cut production, while Iran and Iraq kept raising their exports.

WTI crude oil declined around 1.1% to settle at $49.96 a barrel. Brent, the global benchmark, also declined 1.3% to settle around at $50.79 a barrel.   

On the other hand, swelling U.S. crude oil inventories also weighed on traders’ sentiments. The American Petroleum Institute reported a build of nearly 4.8 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories. API also reported a growth of 1.7 million barrels in gasoline stocks, while distillate inventories declined by 900,000 barrels.

Tuesday, 25 October 2016

Gold Update - India's Gold Industry Struggling

Price Premium Returns for Diwali But India's Gold Industry Struggling
 
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GOLD PRICES in India, the world's largest private holder of the metal, have finally returned to a small premium above global quotes, but the subcontinent's bullion and jewelry industry continues to struggle with over supply and weak demand. 

India has zero domestic mine output, but exports of bullion are banned. So there was no outlet for a glut of metal built as 2016 began with the introduction of new tax rules directly affecting the gold industry, leading domestic prices in the world's No.2 annual consumer – now behind China – to trade below global quotes almost all year, a reverse of the more typical premium which incentivizes new imports.  

Discounts ran to record levels according to media reports, down as deep as $100 per ounce beneath international quotes in July, when global gold prices peaked at $1375 after the UK's Brexit referendum to quit the European Union. 

India's gold demand is claiming a "declining share of wallet" said Sunil Kashyap, managing director of global banking and markets at bullion market-maker Scotiabank, and chairman of the Singapore Bullion Market Association, at last week's London Bullion Market Association conference in Singapore. "Gold has become less and less relevant," he concluded, but while its "share of wallet is reduced, that wallet has grown, so demand overall is constant."

Monday, 24 October 2016

Commodity Updates 24-Oct-2016

Gold Falls Rs 105 on Weak Global Cues
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Tracking a weak trend overseas, gold prices drifted lower by Rs 105 to Rs 30,415 per 10 grams in the bullion market today. However, some buying by jewellers to meet the ongoing 'wedding and festive season demand' in the domestic market capped the losses.  

Silver also dipped below the Rs 43,000-mark by falling by Rs 200 to Rs 42,800 per kg due to reduced offtake by industrial units and coin makers. Traders said a weak trend overseas where gold declined, weighed down by the dollar's strength. They said investors expect the US Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by the end of the year, eroding demand for a haven, mainly kept pressure on gold.  

Globally, gold fell by 0.06 per cent to USD 1,265 an ounce in Singapore. 

In the national capital, gold of 99.9 per cent and 99.5 per cent purity fell by Rs 105 each to Rs 30,415 and Rs 30,265 per 10 grams, respectively. The precious metal had gained Rs 120 in Saturday's trade. Sovereign, however, held steady at Rs 24,400 per piece of eight grams in limited deals. In a similar fashion, silver ready moved down by Rs 200 to Rs 42,800 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 355 to Rs 42,145 per kg. Silver coins, however, ruled flat at Rs 73,000 for buying and Rs 74,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

Wednesday, 19 October 2016

Commodity Update -- Crude Oil Market News

Oil rises as Chinese output drops, U.S. inventories shrink  
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Oil rose by around 1 percent on Wednesday, boosted by evidence of declining production in China and  falling U.S. inventories, while an upbeat OPEC statement on its planned output cut also supported the market. A slightly weaker dollar reinforced the strength in oil as well, traders said, as it makes fuel purchases cheaper for countries using other currencies, potentially spurring demand. Benchmark Brent crude futures were at $52.42 a barrel, up 74 cents on the day by 0922 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were up 73 cents at $51.02 a barrel.
Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Wednesday that oil markets were at the end of a considerable downturn as fundamentals were improving and supply and demand were rebalancing. He called on non-OPEC producers to help stabilise the market saying their role was as critical as the role of OPEC members. "Market forces are clearly working after a testing period of sub-$30 oil prices. Oil demand is expanding at a healthy rate despite slower global growth," he said. 
As the world's largest exporters prepare to discuss the first cut in output in eight years next month, the pressure of persistently low oil prices on higher-cost producers is becoming apparent. China's crude output fell 9.8 percent to 3.89 million bpd, to near its lowest in six years in the second-biggest year-on-year decline on record."The fall in Chinese crude oil production is probably attributable to the low price level, which makes parts of production unprofitable. This makes it all the harder to understand why OPEC is talking prices up with its current debate about production cuts, and is thus helping precisely those oil producers it would ideally like to force out of the market," Commerzbank analysts.

Tuesday, 18 October 2016

Commodity Updates -- Crude Oil Pushed Bullish Positions To Highest

 
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Futures market traders and large oil speculators sharply increased their overall bullish bets in WTI oil futures for a third consecutive week and to the highest level since 2014, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.  

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:
In the commercial positions for oil on the week, the commercials (hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes) raised their existing bearish positions to a net total position of -409,331 contracts through October 11th. This is a weekly change of -53,110 contracts from the total net amount of -356,221 contracts on October 4th.  

United States Oil (NYSE:USO): 
Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday October 4th to Tuesday October 11th, the USO Oil ETF, which tracks the WTI crude oil price, increased from $11.09 to $11.58, according to ETF data for the USO Fund.

Monday, 17 October 2016

Commodity Updates - गोल्ड में बन रहे हैं गिरावट के आसार, जानिए कहां तक गिरेंगे भाव

 
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घरेलू बाजार में पिछले हफ्ते सोने की कीमतों में 960 रुपए प्रति दस ग्राम तक की गिरावट देखने। अगर आप फेस्टिव सीजन में गोल्ड खरीदने की योजना बना रहे हैं तो थोड़ा इंतजार करें। दिसंबर में होने वाली फेडरल रिजर्व की बैठक के फैसले पर गोल्ड कीमतें निर्भर करेंगी। दिसंबर में होने वाली फेडरल रिजर्व की बैठक के फैसले पर गोल्ड कीमतें निर्भर करेंगी। इस बार फेडरल रिजर्व दिसंबर में दरें बढ़ा सकता है जिसके बाद गोल्ड कीमतों में और गिरावट देखने को मिल सकती है। घरेलू बाजार में सोना 27 हजार का स्तर छू सकता है।  

क्यों गिर सकती है गोल्ड की कीमत
ओमकेम कमोडिटी के डायरेक्टर अजय जैन ने बताया कि ग्लोबल इकोनॉमी में सुस्ती के कारण अमेरिका समेत दुनियाभर के बैंकों की ब्याज दरें निगेटिव या जीरो फीसदी पर टिकी हैं। लेकिन अब ग्लोबल इकोनॉमी में सुधार आ रहा है। फेडरल रिजर्व ब्याज दरें बढ़ाने का संकेत दे चुका है। इसके बाद निवेशकों के लिए गोल्ड में पैसा लगाना महंगा हो जाएगा। निवेशक गोल्ड से पैसा निकालकर सरकारी बॉन्ड में निवेश कर सकते है जिससे गोल्ड की कीमतें गिरेंगी। गोल्ड को सेफ हेवन इन्वेस्टमेंट समझा जाता है। ग्लोबल इकोनॉमी सुधरने से गोल्ड में निवेश का कोई मतलब नहीं रह जाएगा। घरेलू बाजार में सोना 27 हजार का स्तर छू सकता है।

पिछले हफ्ते घरेलू बाजार में 960 रुपए टूटा सोना
पिछले हफ्ते फेडरल रिजर्व के प्रेसीडेंट जेफरी लेकर और लोरेटा मेस्टर ने ब्याज दरें बढ़ाने के पक्ष में अपनी राय जाहिर की जिसके बाद ग्लोबल और घरेलू मार्केट में गोल्ड कीमतों में भारी गिरावट देखने को मिली। घरेलू मार्केट में पिछले हफ्ते सोना 960 रुपये टूटकर 30,240 रुपये प्रति दस ग्राम पर आ गया। वही ग्लोबल मार्केट में पिछले सोमवार को सोना 1315.55 डॉलर प्रति औंस पर था जो हफ्ते के अंत में 63.84 डॉलर गिरकर 1,252.71 डॉलर प्रति औंस पर आ गया। यूरोप और अमेरिका में गोल्ड ईटीएफ में बिकवाली की वजह से कीमतें गिरी हैं।

Friday, 14 October 2016

Commodity Updates -- Gold, Silver Slips


Gold drifted lower by Rs 100 to Rs 30,300 per 10 grams at the bullion market today amid a weak global trend and subdued demand from jewelers. Silver also dropped by Rs 275 to Rs 42,350 per kg due to reduced off-take by industrial units and coin makers. Besides, a weak trend overseas and fall in demand from jewelers and retailers at the domestic spot market mainly put pressure on the precious metal prices, traders said.  
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Globally, gold fell 0.21 per cent to USD 1,255.10 an ounce and silver by 0.14 per cent to USD 17.44 an ounce in Singapore. 

In the national capital, gold of 99.9 per cent and 99.5 per cent purity fell by Rs 100 each to Rs 30,300 and Rs 30,150 per 10 grams, respectively. The precious metal had gained Rs 250 yesterday. Sovereign, however, continued to be traded flat at Rs 24,300 per piece of eight grams. Tracking gold, silver ready declined by Rs 275 to Rs 42,350 per kg and weekly-based delivery cracked below the Rs 42,000-mark by falling Rs 280 to Rs 41,950 per kg on lack of speculative buying. Silver coins, too plummeted by Rs 1,000 to Rs 72,000 for buying and Rs 73,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

Thursday, 13 October 2016

Commodity Market - Gold Climb 13-Oct-2016

Gold climbs on weaker dollar, stumbling stocks
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Gold edged up on Thursday on a weaker dollar and as equities plunged on soft Chinese trade data that stoked concerns about the health of the world's No.2 economy. The bullion rose even after minutes from a US Federal Reserve meeting last month signalled that the central bank could raise interest rates in December. "Despite the FOMC minutes that were released overnight, gold prices didn't really move. This strongly suggests that gold prices at this juncture, of $1,250, have already digested the probability of a rate hike around this year," said OCBC Bank analyst Barnabas Gan. Gan added that various headwinds to the global economy would buoy safe-haven demand for bullion, with the metal likely to touch $1,300 by the year-end.

Several voting Federal Reserve policymakers judged a rate hike would be warranted "relatively soon" if the US economy continued to strengthen but doubts on inflation remained, according to the minutes of the Fed's September policy meeting released on Wednesday. "Gold has been under pressure but we do not think the FOMC minutes will add materially to the downwards slant of the market," HSBC analyst James Steel wrote in a note. "But without further increases, some of the pressure on gold may come off." Spot gold was up 0.3 per cent at $1,257.95 an ounce by 0742 GMT, while US gold futures advanced 0.5 per cent to $1,259.80 an ounce.

Wednesday, 12 October 2016

Commodity Update - Gold Plunges Rs 260

Gold plunges Rs 260 on global cues, muted demand
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Gold prices tumbled by Rs 260 to Rs 30,150 per 10 grams in the bullion market on Wednesday amid a weak global trend and easing demand from jewellers in domestic spot market.  

Silver also declined by Rs 160 to Rs 42,590 per kg on slow offtake by industrial units.  

Traders said that besides a weak trend in overseas markets, fall in demand from jewellers in domestic spot market put pressure on gold prices. 

Globally, gold fell by 0.56 per cent to $1,252.40 an ounce and silver by 1.02 per cent to $17.43 an ounce in New York in Tuesday's trade.

Tuesday, 11 October 2016

OPEC Chief - Cartel Lost US$1 Trillion To Oil Price Bust



OPEC Chief Says Cartel Lost US$1 Trillion To Oil Price Bust

Due to the slump in oil prices, OPEC producers have lost more than US$1 trillion in revenues over the past three years, OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo has told reporters in Washington DC.  
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Investments in the oil industry shrank more than 26 percent last year and are projected to drop by another 22 percent this year, Barkindo said on the sidelines of meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in the U.S. capital. 

The estimates for 2017 are also “looking very bleak,” Nigeria’s The Nation quoted Barkindo as saying. For the first time in recent memory, OPEC is not only facing three years in a row of low crude prices, but also declining capex, especially in the upstream business, according to the OPEC official.

Most experts, analysts and agencies, including the IMF and the World Bank, failed to predict correctly how long it would take the market to rebalance, Barkindo noted.

Monday, 10 October 2016

Commodity Market - Saudi's Views on Crude Oil



Saudi says $60 oil 'not unthinkable' by year-end

Saudi Arabia said on Monday it was “not unthinkable” that the price of crude oil could surge to $60 a barrel by the end of the year but warned against drastic production cuts that might shock markets. Speaking in the opening keynote speech at the World Energy Congress in Istanbul, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih said that whatever the oil price the kingdom was in good shape to implement its reform vision to transform the structure of its crude-based economy by 2030. 

We are seeing the convergence of supply and demand,” said al-Falih. “It is not unthinkable we could see $60 (a barrel) by the year end. 
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But my eyes are not on the price but on supply and demand.” 

He added: OPEC should make sure not to crimp too tightly and create a shock to the market

We do not want to shock the markets into a process that could be harmful. 

The minister admitted that the kingdom had become “a little fat around the belly, a bit complacent” during the era of high oil prices but was now fully committed to its economic reform programme set out by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman.

Friday, 7 October 2016

Impact on Commodity by US Nonfarm Payroll Data

U.S. nonfarm payroll job growth seen pushing case for Fed hikes 
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U.S. employment growth likely picked up in September, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and signaling that steam could be building in the economy ahead of America's presidential election. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 175,000 last month from 151,000 in August, according to a Reuters survey of economists. That would be around the average monthly job growth so far this year, which Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last month was "unsustainable" and could over time cause the economy to overheat. 

Yellen has said the economy needs to create just under 100,000 jobs a month to keep up with population growth. The Labor Department will release its employment report on Friday at 8:30 a.m ET and the data is expected to show the jobless rate holding steady at 4.9 percent.   

"A strong jobs report is going to bolster the case for a rate increase," Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, referring to the consensus forecast for job growth, told reporters this week in Huntington, West Virginia. It will be the last employment report before the Fed's Nov. 1-2 policy meeting. Investors see almost no chance of a rate increase at that meeting given how close it is to the Nov. 8 presidential election. 

Yellen said last month the Fed will likely raise rates once this year but prices on fed funds futures suggest just above even odds the hike will come at the Fed's last policy meeting for the year in December. Some Fed policymakers have vocally defended a go-slow approach to rate increases but three policymakers voted for a hike last month when the Fed kept rates steady.

Thursday, 6 October 2016

Commodity Updates -- OPEC could cut output in Nov

OPEC could cut output more in Nov if needed: Algeria
OPEC could cut production at its late November meeting in Vienna by another one percent more than the amount agreed in Algiers last month, if producers reckon it is needed, Algeria's Energy Minister Nouredine Bouterfa has told local Ennahar TV. He also told Ennahar that OPEC and non-OPEC members would hold an informal meeting in Istanbul Oct. 8-13 to discuss how to implement the Algiers deal, though he did not give details about who would attend.  
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OPEC producers agreed in Algiers in September to reduce output by around 700,000 barrels per day to a range of 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day, its first cut since 2008. OPEC estimates its current output at 33.24 million bpd. 

"We will evaluate the market in Vienna by the end of November and if 700,000 barrels are not enough, we will go up. Now that OPEC is unified and speaks in one voice everything is much easier and if we need to cut by 1 percent, we will cut by 1 percent," Bouterfa told Ennahar in an interview to be broadcast later on Thursday.  

Algeria is one of OPEC's price hawks and this was the first suggestion of a possible further decrease in output. Before the Algiers meeting Bouterfa had been pressing for a one million bpd OPEC production cut to stabilize prices.

Wednesday, 5 October 2016

Commodity News -- Oil Hits Highest Since June

Oil hits highest since June on possible U.S. inventory drop  
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Oil rose towards $52 a barrel on Wednesday, hitting its highest since June, supported by an industry  report that U.S. inventories probably fell for a fifth straight week and OPEC's deal to cut supply. The American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories dropped 7.6 million barrels, which would be the fifth straight weekly decline if confirmed by U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday.


Brent crude was trading at $51.74 a barrel, up 87 cents, at 0948 GMT. The global benchmark touched $51.81 during the session, its highest since June 10. U.S. crude was up 81 cents at $49.50. Another drop in U.S. crude stocks would reinforce the view that the supply glut that has been weighing on prices since 2014 is easing. The API data, however, does not always tally with the EIA data, which is due at 1430 GMT. Analysts expect a rise in crude stocks of 2.6 million barrels.  

"If the (EIA) can confirm the API statistics and help crude oil break away from the resistance of the high of August, then crude oil will have to start targeting the high of June," said Olivier Jakob, analyst at Petromatrix. Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA in Singapore, said another confirmed drawdown in crude stocks would likely push U.S. crude above $50.  

Brent has risen from below $49 on Sept. 28, when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed a surprise cut in its output to support prices which are less than half the level of mid-2014. Under the deal, OPEC will target production of between 32.50 million barrels per day (bpd) and 33.0 million bpd, implying a cut of as much as 740,000 bpd from the August level, as reported in OPEC's monthly report

Tuesday, 4 October 2016

Monetary Policy Review: RBI Cuts Repo Rate by 25 bps

RBI Cuts Repo Rate To 6-Year Low In Urjit Patel's First Monetary Policy, EMIs To Fall 

The Reserve Bank of India in its monetary policy review today cut its key lending rate or the repo rate by 25 basis points to a six-year low of 6.25 per cent, from 6.5 per cent. Banks are expected to pass on the RBI rate cut to customers. Today's rate decision, the first in the tenure of new RBI chief Urijit Patel, also began a new era for the central bank. Today's policy decision was for the first time made by a six-member panel called the monetary policy committee or MPC; the decision was so far taken by the RBI governor alone. 
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  • All six members voted for a rate cut in a unanimous decision. 
  • Markets cheered the move, with Sensex rising 91 points and Nifty closing above 8,750. 
"Weak global demand is actually going to drag down trade volumes. It is possible that IMF may downgrade global growth further. There is also the issue of outcome of US presidential elections," said Governor Urjit Patel, 52, who took over last month from Raghuram Rajan after serving for three years as a deputy governor.  

On the MPC, Dr Patel's is the casting vote. The other members are two Reserve Bank officials and three government nominated academics. The committee is bound by an inflation target of 4 per cent, plus or minus 2 percentage points as per its mandate, under the government's monetary policy framework agreement with the RBI.

Monday, 3 October 2016

Commodity Updates - Oil Breaks above $50 a Barrel

Oil breaks above $50 a barrel as investors warm to OPEC deal  

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Oil rose to its highest since August above $50 a barrel on Monday, supported by a planned production cut by exporter club OPEC, although analysts cautioned the stubbornness of the existing supply overhang could temper a longer-lasting rally. December Brent crude futures were last up 50 cents at $50.69 a barrel, off a session low of $49.74, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 45 cents to $48.69 a barrel, above the day's low at $47.78.  

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said last week it would cut output to between 32.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 33.0 million bpd from about 33.5 million bpd, with details to be finalized at its policy meeting in November. Initial skepticism last week over the effectiveness of the deal in eroding the global surplus gave way to a wave of short-covering that drove the price above $50 a barrel for the first time since late August on Monday.  

OPEC's oil output is likely to reach 33.60 million bpd in September from a revised 33.53 million bpd in August, its highest in recent history, a Reuters survey found on Friday. "Sentiment has been slightly dented by a Reuters survey Friday, showing that despite agreeing to cut production OPEC pumped crude in record amounts through September," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA in Singapore.